Abstract
Smallholder farmers’ decisions to adopt adaptation options in response to climate change and variability are influenced by socioeconomic, institutional, and environmental factors, indicating that decision patterns can be very specific to a given locality. The prime objective of this research is to identify factors affecting smallholder farmers’ decisions to adopt adaptation options to climate change and variability in the Muger River sub-basin of the Blue Nile basin of Ethiopia. Both quantitative and qualitative data were collected using a semi-structured questionnaire, focused group discussions, and key informant interviews from 442 sampled households. Frequency, mean, Chi-square test, and one-way ANOVA were used for analysis. Furthermore, a multinomial logit model was employed to analyze the data. Results signified that small-scale irrigation, agronomic practices, livelihood diversification, and soil and water conservation measures are the dominant adaptation options that smallholder farmers used to limit the negative impact of climate change and variability in the study area. The results further revealed that adoption of small-scale irrigation as an adaptation to climate change and variability is significantly and positively influenced by access to credit, social capital, and the educational status of household heads. Greater distance to marketplace and size of farmland negatively affected the use of agronomic practices, whereas crop failure experience and access to early warning systems have a positive influence. The results also point out that adoption of soil and water conservation measures are positively affected by exposure to early warning systems, greater distance to the marketplace, and larger size of cultivated land. It is also noted that livelihood diversification is negatively influenced by socioeconomic factors such as education, the gender of the household head, and livestock ownership. Overall, the results suggested that improved policies aimed at increasing the adoption of adaptation options to offset the impact of climate change and variability should focus on: creating effective microfinance institutions and effective early warning systems, increasing farmer awareness, improving infrastructure, and encouraging farmers’ membership to many social groups. The results further suggested that agroecological and gender-based research should be promoted and increased for a more holistic understanding of farmer adaptation options.
Background
Climate change is expected to have significant adverse effects on agricultural production in Africa, in particular, due to the continent’s dependence on rain-fed agriculture [1,2,3,4]. Empirical studies show that climate change and variability already place a heavy burden on smallholder farmers, and their livelihoods will be further threatened by ongoing climate change [5,6,7].
Like most African countries, Ethiopia is frequently identified as a country that is highly vulnerable to climate variability and change [8,9,10]. The agriculture sector has been playing a very significant role in providing food, employment, and income to the majority of people in Ethiopia. It accounts for about 42.9% of gross domestic product (GDP), 80% of employment, and 88% of export earnings [11]. However, climate change remains the major challenge to the development of agriculture and food security [12]. Despite its high contribution to the overall economy, the sector is inherently sensitive to climate climate-related disasters like drought and flood and is among the most vulnerable sectors to the risks and impacts of global climate change [13]. Studies indicate that Ethiopian agriculture is characterized by a low use of external inputs and it is highly vulnerable to climate variability and change [10, 14,15,16,17]. The impact on agriculture is manifested by increasing incidence of floods, droughts, and unpredictable rainfall [18, 19] and has resulted in food shortage and famine in the past [20,21,22,23], and they continue to pose a serious threat to Ethiopia’s development [12].
Because of the huge contribution of agriculture to Ethiopian’s economy and its high susceptibility to climate change and climate-related extreme events–droughts and floods, it is important to study adaptation strategies to overcome the anticipated adverse impacts. It has been recognized that adaptation to climate change and variability is one of the policy agenda widely supported to help smallholder farmers to limit the negative effects of climate change in this sector [24,25,26]. It has been noted that the existing support system determines differences in adaptation options to climate hazards among households to households and region to region. There is considerable evidence that climate change holds back the progress of Ethiopian agriculture [27,28,29]. However, results from these studies were inclusively focused on the impact of climate change on agricultural production and productivity and suggested adaptation strategies, but failed to address the driving forces that determine household’s choices of adaptation options. This presents an important limitation since farmers’ responses to climate change or their choice of adaptation strategies have been dictated by a host of environmental and socioeconomic factors.
Furthermore, studies have been undertaken to analyze the impact of climate change and factors affecting the choice of adaptation methods in mono-crop and mixed crop production system in Africa at the regional level [25, 30, 31]. The aggregate nature of these studies, however, makes it very difficult to provide insights in identifying country-specific impacts and adaptation methods given the heterogeneity of countries included. Diversity in agroecological features, socioeconomic, institutional, and environmental issues was not addressed in these studies. This has limited the contribution of adaptation strategies, as the adoption of adaptation strategies to climate variability and change is context specific.
So far, there is only a study specific to the Nile River Basin that investigates factors affecting the choice of adaptation methods [32]. Although the study by Deressa et al. [32] provides important information, it is limited to an analysis of crop production systems and does not take into account the dramatic spatial heterogeneity (i.e., in soil qualities, steepness of slopes, and access to infrastructure), socioeconomic, and environmental diversity. Thus, there is limited scientific evidence on which to base feasible development policy interventions, although these are urgently necessary to strengthen effective adaptation measures that can be implemented by smallholder farmers and help them to reduce food insecurity. Thus, an understanding of the determinants of a household decision to adopt a particular adaptation strategy among the available choices is crucial to provide insights and identify target variables that enhance the use of adaptation strategies. In this context, the results of the study can potentially provide an informed basis on which policy recommendations can be drawn from these insights to facilitate the adoption of adaptation strategies at the local level so that the adverse impact of climate change and variability on their livelihoods can be limited.
Hence, the objectives of this study are to explore adaptation strategies used by smallholder farmers in response to the adverse effects of climate change and variability and to analyze factors that influence smallholder farmers’ decisions to adopt adaptation strategies in the Muger River sub-basin of the Blue Nile River Basin.
Description of the study area
Biophysical setting
Muger sub-basin is part of the upper Blue Nile basin and covers a total area of 8188 km2. Muger River flows from the southeast of the basin into upper Blue Nile basin. The altitude in Muger sub-basin ranges between 953 and 3550 masl. The highlands in the eastern and southern part of the sub-basin are higher in altitude, greater than 2600 m up to 3550 m. The lowlands along the Muger River have lower altitude less than 1700 masl [33].
The sub-basin has an annual rainfall that varies between 833 and 1326 mm. Lower annual rainfall ranging from 833 mm up to 1000 mm is observed along the river and lowlands. Relatively high rainfall is recorded in the highlands of the sub-basin. The annual maximum and minimum temperature of the sub-basin varies between 16–31.5 and 3–16.5 °C, respectively. Temperature is higher along the river with a maximum of 28–31.5 °C and minimum of 13–16.5 °C. The sub-basin is characterized by tepid to cool moist highlands. The northwestern part of the lowlands is hot to warm moist lowlands [33].
The major soils of the sub-basin are Leptosols, Luvisols, Vertisols, Fluvisols, and Alisols. Leptosols represent the most widely occurring soils within the sub-basin. The second dominant soil is Luvisols. Small patches of Cambisols, Nitosols, and Rigosols are also in some parts of the basin.
Socioeconomic setting
According to the current zonal structure, the sub-basin is shared between three zones: North shoa, West shoa, and Oromia Regional State Finfine Special Zone. Muger sub-basin covers 15 districts: Ejersa (Addis Alem), Walmara, Jeldu, Mulo, Sululta, Adda Berga, Meta Robi, Yaya Gulelena Debre Libanos, Wichalena Jido, Ginde Beret, Kuyu, Kutaya, Gerar Jarso, Degem, and Wara Jarso. The total population of the sub-basin is 2,442,247 people [33]. The Muger sub-basin is predominantly rural in character, and the farmers are engaged in small-scale and subsistence mixed agriculture.
