ABSTRACT
The study analyzed the effects of climate change on arable crops’ productivity, food security and adaptation strategies in Nigeria. It specifically ranked climate change risks affecting farmers in Nigerian agro-climatic zones; estimated the effects of climate factors on farm productivity (yield and net revenue variability); determined the effects of climate and socioeconomic variables on the level of household food security; ascertained the influence of farmers’ perception of climate change’s effects and household characteristics on choice of adaptation technologies adopted in coping with climate variability. It also evaluated the influence of gender on level of adoption of climate change adaptation technologies by the farmers. Five null hypotheses were tested. The study relied mainly on institutional and primary data for its analysis. Data were obtained using a set of structured questionnaire administered in a multi-stage, stratified random sampling manner on arable crop farmers (maize, rice, cassava, yam and cowpea farmers). Sixty (60) farmers each were randomly selected from 5 states in each of the five agro-climatic zones in Nigeria giving a total sample size of 300 farmers. Data collected were analyzed using Kendall’s W statistics, Ricardian model, OLS (three functional forms), Heckman’s Probit Selectivity Model, Gross Margin, Per Capita Household Food Consumption Expenditure and ANOVA. Soil nutrients loss (x̅ = 2.12), flood ( x̅ = 2.59) and increased temperature (x̅ = 2.50) were the most risky climate change factors in Swampy Forest, Tropical Forest, and Guinea Savannah zones respectively. In the Sudan and Sahel Savannahs, the most risky threat was drought (x̅ = 1.53 & 1.72 respectively). Five factors, namely, rainfall and temperature variations, planting materials costs, household size and labour cost exerted significant (0.05) effects on level of gross margins. Their elasticities were 1.20, 8.22, 0.11, 0.10 and 0.12, respectively. Rainfall, temperature, planting materials’ cost, gender, farmers’ age, years of formal education, household size and cost of labour significantly (0.05) influenced yield. Their elasticities were 2.61, 1457.25, 0.35, 2.71,-6.83, 130.03, 484.31 and 0.01, respectively. Rainfall, temperature, personal income and educational attainment significantly (0.05) determined food security with respective elasticities of 0.75, -10.96, 0.19 and -2.34. Food security index varied significantly (0.05) across agro-climatic zones. Extension contact, gender of the head of household, temperature and rainfall levels significantly (0.05) determined the decision to adapt to climate change. Their Z estimates were 5.75, 5.30, 2.32 and -9.50, respectively. Perception of climate change effect was significantly (0.05) influenced by education and agricultural extension access. Mean annual rainfall, temperature and location significantly (0.05) determined the level of adoption of climate change adaptation strategies by the farmers with elasticities of -0.70, -8.84 and -6.66, respectively. Gender exerted no significant effect on the level of adaptation to climate change. The rest four null hypotheses were rejected. Seven recommendations were made to address the issues found in the study. These included the need to resettle displaced farmers, promote investment on irrigation, provide weather stations to farmers and early warning information, capacity building of farmers, investing in research and gender mainstreaming in climate change policies.
CHAPTER ONE
INTRODUCTION
1.1 Background of the Study
Climate change refers to any variation in climate over time, whether due to natural variability or as a result of human activity (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC, 2001a; 2001b). Climate change in the form of higher temperatures, reduced rainfall and increased rainfall variability, reduces crop yields and threatens food security in low income based economies (FAO, 2007). The specific effects of climate change risks on agriculture and natural resources as profiled by the World Bank (2008; 2010) include: crop failures as a result of high temperature and low rainfall; increased land degradation (erosion, desertification, leaching, flooding. poor siltation) which affects arable land for farming; alteration of vegetation structure from thick forest into thin forest and shrubs; greater incidence of alien diseases and pests as a result of changes in temperature and humidity; continuous loss of non-timber forest products; complete dry out of some rivers, sometimes making water for household activities scarce to mention but a few.
The world leaders have made several attempts to address the problem of climate change arising from increase in Green House Gas (GHG) emissions, especially CO2 emission. The international political response to climate change began with the adoption of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in 1992. The UNFCCC sets out a framework for action aimed at stabilizing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases to avoid “dangerous anthropogenic interference” with the climate system. The Convention, which entered into force on 21 March 1994, now has 195 parties. In December 1997, delegates to the third session of the Conference of the Parties (COP) in Kyoto, Japan, agreed to a Protocol of the UNFCCC that commits industrialized countries and countries in transition to a market economy to achieve emission reduction targets. These countries, known as Annex I parties under the UNFCCC, agreed to reduce their overall emissions of six greenhouse gases by an average of 5.2 percent below 1990 levels between 2008-2012 (the first commitment period), with specific targets varying from country to country (United Nations, 1998). The Kyoto Protocol entered into force on 16 February 2005 now has 193 parties. At the end of 2005, the first steps were taken to consider long-term issues. Convening in Montreal, Canada, the first session of the COP-11 agreed to consider long-term cooperation under the convention through a series of four workshops known as “the Convention Dialogue,” which continued until COP 13 i.e. the Bali Roadmap in 2007. Since then, other conventions that have shaped global approach to solving the problem of climate change were held in Copenhagen, Denmark (2009), Cancun, Mexico (2010) and most recently, in 2011, three official UNFCCC negotiating sessions were held in the lead-up to Durban (UNFCCC COP 17).The United Nations Climate Change Conference in Durban (COP 17), South Africa, opened on Monday morning, 28 November 2011 (UNFCCC, 2012). Thereafter there was another conference in 2012, Rio+20 Summit launched ‘‘Sustainable Development Goals’’ and laid down “the ground-breaking guidelines on applying green economy and growth policies as useful tools in advancing sustainable development and ending poverty” (Zhukang, 2012 in Nhamo, 2012).
Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NIMET, 2012a) reported that in 2012 (the year in review by this present research), rainfall amounts were normal to above normal levels with high intensity rainfall duration in some occasions leading to flooding during the months of July, August and September. It is important to note that for the first time since 2008, the northeast had rainfall more than normal values in more than ten consecutive years. Widespread flooding peaked between September and mid-October across the country and was particularly severe in the north central and coastal states. Nigeria experienced the worst flooding in 2012 for more than a century. The report also noted that hot season in 2012 was warmer than normal in the north but normal in the south except over the extreme southeast which was cooler than normal. Preliminary reports on the agricultural sector by NIMET indicated that out of the major food crops (yam, cassava, maize, sorghum and rice), yam would be the most affected, followed by rice and and cassava. States mostly affected by the flooding were Kogi, Adamawa, Delta and Bayelsa States. Storm destroyed infrastructures leading to disruption of socioeconomic activities.
Climate variability and change are sources of risk to farmers. According to FAO (2010) uncertainty and risk go hand in hand with farming. They are a pervasive feature of the farm environment. How to handle the risks often associated with uncertainty is the most difficult aspect of farm-system planning and management, FAO maintained. The variability in yield and income due to risk can be factored or incorporated into the farm schedule so that such risks can be minimized by measures designed to alter production plans (risk mitigation). Global warming and its attendant consequence of climate change is becoming a major source of worry in most economic activities globally (Morton, 2007). Farm activities are no exception to the influences of environmental issues. According to Samuelson and Nordhaus (2005) none of the environmental issues is so worrisome to scientists as the threat of global warming from the greenhouse effect.
