TABLE OF CONTENTS
PAGES
Title Page i
Approval Page i
Certification iii
Dedication iv
Acknowledgement v
Table of Contents vi
List of Tables ix
Abstract x
CHAPTER I INTRODUCTION
Background of the Study 1
Statement of the Problem 10
Purpose of the Study 11
Significance of the Study 12
Research Questions 13
Research Hypothesis 14
Delimitation of the Study 14
CHAPTER II REVIEW OF RELATED LITERATURE
Conceptual Framework 15
Climate Change 15
Crop Productivity 20
Food Security 26
Farmers’ Income 29
Living Standard 31
Mitigating Strategies 33
Impact Assessment Models 38
Socio-economic model 39
Before and after model 42
Related Empirical Studies 43
Summary of Literature Review 50
CHAPTER III METHODOLOGY
Design of the Study 51
Area of the Study 51
Population of the Study 52
Sample and sampling technique 52
Instrument for Data Collection 53
Validation of the Instrument 54
Reliability of the Study 55
Method of Data Collection 55
Method of Data Analysis 55
CHAPTER IV PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS OF DATA
Research Question 1/Hypothesis 1 58
Research Question 2 /Hypothesis 2 60
Research Question 3/Hypothesis 3 62
Research Question 4 /Hypothesis 4 65
Research Question 5 67
Findings of the Study 69
Discussion of Findings 72
CHAPTER V SUMMARY, CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS
Re-Statement of the Problem 75
Summary of Procedures Used 77
Major Findings 78
Conclusion 79
Implication of the Study 80
Recommendations 80
Suggestions for Further Studies 81
REFERENCES
APPENDICES
Appendix A: Distribution of Crop Farmers in Samaru Agricultural
Zone of Kaduna state 90
Appendix B: Letter to Validate 91
Appendix C: Questionnaire 92
Appendix E:
Result of Data Analysis
99
LIST OF TABLES
- Mean Ratings, Standard Deviation and t-test Analysis of Farmers
- Responses on Level of Crop Yields Before and After Climate Change as Perceived by Farmers in Samaru Agricultural Zone of Kaduna State 58
- Mean Ratings, Standard Deviation t-test Analysis of Farmers Responses on Level of Farmers’Income before and After Climate Change as Perceived by Farmers in Samaru Agricultural Zone of Kaduna State. 60
3 Mean Ratings, Standard Deviation and t-test Analysis of Farmers Responses on Level of Food Security Before and After Climate Change as Perceived by Farmers in Samaru Agricultural Zone of Kaduna State 63
4 Mean Ratings, Standard Deviation and t-test of Farmers Responses on Level of Farmers’ Living Standard Before and After Climate Change as perceived by Farmers in Samaru Agricultural Zone of Kaduna State 65
5 Mean Ratings and Standard Deviation of Farmers Responses on the Coping Strategies Employed for Mitigating the Negative Impact of Climate Change on Farmers’ Productivity and Income in Samaru Agricultural Zone of Kaduna State 68
Abstract
The
study was carried out to ascertain the farmers’ perception of the impact of
climate change on crop productivity and income in Samaru Agricultural Zone of
Kaduna State. Five research questions guided the study while four null
hypotheses were tested at 0.05 level of significance. A survey research design
was adopted for the study. The population for the study comprised all 10,509
registered crop farmers with the Kaduna Agricultural Development Project in
2012.Multi-stage sampling technique was used to select 375 farmers. A structured
questionnaire was used for data collection. Cronbach alpha reliability method
was employed to determine the internal consistency of the items in the
questionnaire and 0.82 reliability coefficient was obtained. Data collected
were analyzed using the mean and standard deviation for the research questions
while t- test was used for testing the null hypotheses. It was found out from
the study that climate change had high impact on the level of crop yield of
farmers, level of crop farmers’ income, food security and living standard in
Samaru Agricultural Zone of Kaduna State. The study identified thirteen
strategies employed by farmers in coping with the negative impact of climate
change in Samaru Agricultural Zone of Kaduna State. There was no significant
difference between the mean responses of farmers on the yield of crops, levels
of farmer’s income, level of food security and level of living standard of
famers before and after the commencement of climate change in samaru zone of
Kaduna state. It was recommended that crop farmers should be trained and
educated through workshop and seminar on proper ways for coping with the effect
of climate change on crops.
CHAPTER ONE
INTRODUCTION
Background of the Study
Nigeria is an agrarian country with about 70% of the population engaging in crop farming. Crop farming is a major occupation and important source of livelihood to the majority of rural farmers. The major proportion of food consumed in the country is produced by small holder farmers who live and operate in the rural areas (Farauta, Egbule, Idrisa & Agu, 2011). These crop farmers are characterized by relatively low scale farming enterprise using mainly local input, traditional cultural practices with low capital base.
Most of the crop farmers in Samaru Zone are peasant farmers. They practice continuous crop farming with mixed cropping which do not permit the use of modern farming implements and agro-chemicals like herbicides and pesticides. The crop farmers use simple tools such as hoes, cutlasses, and animal drawn implements for cultivation. The vast majority of crop farmers have limited access to modern input and productive resources like pesticides and fertilizer without form of public sector intervention (Abaje & Giwa, 2007).
The crops mainly produced by farmers in Samaru Agricultural Zone of Kaduna State are cereals like maize, millet, sorghum and hungry rice; legumes like cowpea, soybeans and groundnut; root and tubers like cassava, cocoyam and yam; vegetables like tomato, okra, pepper, garden egg, and onion; rhizomes like ginger. Others include tree crops like mango, citrus, grape fruits and palm oil. Food crops farming predominates the farming system with one or several other crops in mixture or rotation. Crop farming is important to the livelihood of millions of people in Samaru Agricultural Zone by providing food, livestock feeds and income that improve their living standard. The real strength of crop production lies in the wide ecological variability and good weather for most part of the year, which accounts for the large spectrum of agricultural commodities including crops (Nigeria Agricultural Digest, 2010).Most often crop farming is influenced or determined by climate.
Climate is the average weather condition of a place for long period of time (about thirty-five years) including weather pattern, the frequency and intensity of storms, cold spell and hot weather.(Neriberina, 2007). Weather is the daily fluctuating state of the atmosphere around us. The climatic factors are rainfall, temperature, relative humidity, sunlight, (day length), cloud cover, air pressure and wind (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), 2007). However, crop production is influenced in different dimension and stages of crop growth by climatic factors. Temperature is the hotness and coolness of an area which is determinant of the rate at which crop progresses through morphological stages towards maturity. Rainfall is the water that falls from the sky over a period of time. Rainfall is a crucial input to crop growth and adequate rainfall is very important during germination and growth. Wind is a moving air across the surface of the planet or atmosphere. Wind influences crop production by aiding pollination and dissemination of seeds and fruit. Relative humidity is the amount of moisture in the air, which helps crops to grow, mature and flower. Relative humidity determines the types of crops to be grown. Solar radiation (day length) increases and encourages higher production of crops through photosynthesis. Generally, climatic factors interrelate to produce high crop productivity (Salinger, 2005).
Crop production however depends highly on climate; climate is the main driver of crop growth and high productivity. Decrease in farmer’s productivity is attributed to increase in temperature, decrease in rainfall, flood, desertification and drought caused by climate change,
Climate change is a long time shifts, alteration or change in the type of climate prevailing over specific location, region, or entire planet (Adejuwon 2004).According to Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)( 2001) climate change is a change in weather pattern which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activities that alter the composition of global atmosphere and natural climate variability observed over a comparable time period. Climate change is interchangeably used with anthropogenic global warming. Thus, global warming is an average increase in temperature of the atmosphere near the earth surface and in the troposphere which contributes to changes in global climate pattern caused by increased emission of greenhouse gases and human activities (IPCC, 2007).Global warming is one of the key aspects of climate change. It is obvious that climate change is an inherent attribution of climate which is caused by natural processes and human activities.
Climate change is caused by human activities among which are burning of fossils fuels (coal, oil and natural gas), bush burning, deforestation, urbanization, desertification and various agricultural and industrial practices. Other causes are natural factors such as changing in sun’s intensity or slow changes in the earth’s orbit around the sun, changing in ocean circulation, building of greenhouse gases (GHGs) such as carbon dioxide, nitrate oxides, chlorofluoro carbons (CFCs) and methane in the atmosphere, thereby altering the composition of the atmosphere, contributing to the climate change (IPCC, 2007).
Ironically, climate change has both positive and negative impact on crop production, but there is more negative impact than the positive. In line with climate changes over the years natural changes in climate result from interaction between the atmosphere and oceans, variations in the sun’s energy output and the amount of materials injected into the upper atmosphere by explosive volcanic eruption.
But since the beginning of the industrial revolution, burning more coal and oil for homes which have increased dramatically due to the rapid growth of population combined with development in technology and agriculture that releases carbon dioxide and other green house gases into the atmosphere. These added gases have caused the earth to worm quickly which acts like thickening blanket and trap more heat that impact crop farming. However, climate change influence on crop farmer’s productivity through the variability of climatic factors is global.
Climate change is a global phenomenon. It is the greatest challenge facing the crop farmer’s existence on earth in this century. Its impact are biting and more felt by developing countries in Africa, Nigeria is one of such developing countries that are affected due to geographical location and low level of coping capabilities. In Sahel region of northern Nigeria, where Samaru Agricultural Zone is located, climate change constitute a major challenge in diverse ecological problems like land degradation, drought, desertification and flood. The Samaru Agricultural Zone is one of the four Agricultural Zone of Kaduna State. These are Samaru, Lere, Birni-Gwari and Maigana Zone.
Data available in Kaduna Agricultural Development Project Zone Year Weather Report(KADP,2012) shows that there is change in climatic factors in Samaru Agricultural Zone between 1980 and 1995 the average daily temperature was 27° C, average annual rainfall was 1600mm and average annual humidity was 76%.The records also showed that later between 1996 and 2012 the average daily temperature has increased to 33°C,annual rainfall decreased to 1314mm and annual humidity decreased to 64%.Also between these two periods 1980-1995 and 1996-2012 the length of rainy season decreased from seven(7) months to four (4) months leading to increased of dry season period in the year. Thus, there is climate change
Crop farmers are faced with constraints of decrease in rainfall, cessation of rain, erratic rainfall distribution and changes of rivers from perennial to seasonal on water supply. Crop farming is almost along the banks of the major rivers and other seasonal water sources (Mohammed, 2009). The Nigeria meteorological Agency highlights that analyses of rainfall data in thirty years interval (1980-2010) shows that the area is recording late onset of rains, early cessation of rain, shortened length of rainy season and reduced annual amounts of rains. There are more frequencies of drought, more persistent harmattan haze and increasing temperature trends (Kaduna state Agricultural Development project (KADP)(2011).Diverse ecological problems as result of climate variability affect natural resources for crop production.
The decrease in rainfall and increase in temperature caused by climate change is predicted to worsen the incidence of drought and desertification, therefore causing crop productivity to decrease. However, decrease in crop productivity result to reduction on food availability, low income and poor living standard of crop farmers. The reduction in livelihood led to migration of youth to seek for economic opportunities elsewhere. The migration and resettlement of people to areas less threatened by drought and desertification has given rise to increasing spate of communal clashes, limited opportunities in their own communities. Also brings about incidence of human diseases, proliferations of pest and disease that hinder crops storage. Changes in climatic factors associated with climate change like temperature, rainfall, and solar radiation, extreme weather events such as drought, desertification and flood affects crop productivity.
Productivity is an average measure of the efficiency of production. According to Echezona (2009)crop productivity is a ratio of production output to what is required to produce it (input of capital, labour, land-energy materials).Crop productivity is the ratio of output to input for specific production situation(Talath, Naile & Jalgaonkar,2011) The benefits of high crop productivity are manifold. High crop productivity increase farmers’ income. Increase in farmers’ income raises farmers’ living standards. Farmers’ income improves people’s ability to purchase goods and services whether they are necessities or luxuries, enjoy leisured, build or purchased house, trained children in school and reduced poverty. High crop productivity is the main concerns of the farmers. High crop productivity increases food availability. Crop productivity makes crop farmers’ household to be food secured. Food security is a situation that exists when people have secure access to sufficient amounts of safe and nutritious food for normal growth development and active healthy life. Food availability and food accessibility are the key determinants of household food security. (Food and Agricultural Organization, 2008) Climate change is likely to cause a negative impact on crop productivity and farmers’ income.
Income is the potential power one has to spend or save over a given time period. According to Hill and Ray (2007) farmers’ income is the potential spending power a farmer has in a given period which comes in form of earnings from gainful activities of the crop farming or flowing from investment of farming related activities. In the context of this study crop farmers’ income is the sum available for remunerating farmers for the physical work they contribute to farming and for a return on the capital represented by farmer and its assets. Crop farmers’ income is a profit incurred through the operation of a crop farm.
However, in recent years crop farmer’s household income comes from off-farm sources due to climate change impact on crop productivity. Seventy percent of farmers’ households are having an off-farm job other than farming occupation. The wellbeing of farmer’s households is determined solely by the income from crop farmers’ productivity. Crop productivity influence farmer’s living standard. Living standard is the level of materials, comfort measured by the goods and services and human luxuries available to farmers (Talath, et al,.2011).
The farmers that suffer reduced crop productivity because of climate change will more likely suffer low income. Crop productivity and income is tied to climate. That is, if climatic conditions are not favourable, crop productivity will be low, since crop productivity is significant fractions of farmers’ income; farmers’ poverty is linked to adverse climatic conditions. The income from increased crop productivity improves farmer’s living standard which is achieved by employing mitigating strategies to the vulnerability of climate change (Bogul, 2010). Mitigating strategies is the human intervention to reduce the sources or enhance the sinks of greenhouse gasses (GHGS).Mitigating strategies is vital components of response to climate change because it helps the crop farmers to achieved high crop productivity, food security, income and livelihood security objectives in changing climatic and conditions. But factors like climate change militate against high crop productivity. The extent of climate change impact on crop productivity and income can be known if impact assessment is carried out.
Impact assessment is an investigation designed to find out what effects changes have on human activities and natural world. According to Organization for economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) (2006) Impact assessment is the process of identifying the anticipated or actual impact of climate change on social, economic and environment as it inadvertently affects the crop farmers. Before impact assessment forecast potential impact for planning intervention while after impact assessment identifies actual impact during and after changes to enable corrective action to be taken in future interventions.
In relation to this study, impact assessment models such as socio-economic model and before and after model will be use to assess the social and economic impact of climate change before and after commencement. This study will adopt the before and after model in relation to farmers perception of the impact of climate change on crop productivity, food security, farmers’ income and living standard. Impact assessment tries to find out what happened in current climate change and what would have been the crop yield, farmers’ income and living standard of crop farmers without the changes. Impact assessment model would attempt to investigate farmers’ perception of the impact of climate change on crop productivity and income in Samaru Agricultural Zone of Kaduna State. The main aimed of crop farmers is to produce crops for high crop productivity and income but this is not achieved due to climate change impact. It is not surprising however, because of climate change most of the populations in Samaru Agricultural Zone are not food secured and farmers’ living standard is poor due to low income from crop productivity.
Statement of the Problem
