A MATHEMATICAL MODEL ON THE DYNAMICS OF EBOLA VIRUS DISEASES IN HUMAN POPULATION (STATISTICS PROJECT TOPICS AND MATERIALS)
ABSTRACT
Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) is a rare, acute and infectious diseases caused by Ebola Zaire virus, one of the five strains of the Ebola virus (filovirus), which is often fatal if untreated. In this research work, we developed a model that describes the dynamics of Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) and the human population compartments involved with vital dynamics (birth and death rates), incorporating treatment of exposed individuals and quarantining of infectious individuals which are influenced by public enlightenment campaign, availability of isolation centres and surveillance coverage. A system of nonlinear differential equations was formulated for the transmission. Stability analysis of the model indicated that, the Disease Free Equilibrium (DFE) where the contact rate between the infected and infections individuals undergoing treatment and the susceptible individuals is very negligible is stable and indeed, when the Basic Reproduction Number Ro is 1, the Disease Free Equilibrium (DFE) and the Endemic Equilibrium (EE) coincide. The model shows that with enhanced public enlightenment and quarantining structures put in place, very serious outbreak with high mortality rate can be better controlled.
CHAPTER ONE
INTRODUCTION
1.0 What is Ebola?
Ebola is an acute and infectious disease marked by fever and severe internal bleeding, spread through contact with infected body fluids by a filo virus (Ebola virus), previously known as Ebola condition in humans and nonhuman primates such as monkeys, gorillas and chimpanzees. Ebola is one of the several viral hemorrhagic fevers (VHF) caused by infection with virus of the filoviridae family, genus Ebola virus. The first cases of Ebola were reported simultaneously in 1976 in Yambuku and the surrounding area, near the Ebola River in Zaire, which is now the Democratic Republic of the Congo and in Nzara, Sudan where it takes its name.
1.1 Signs and Symptoms of Ebola
The time interval from infection with Ebola to the onset of symptoms is 2 to 21 days, although 8 to 10 days is said to be most common. Humans are not infectious until they develop symptoms.
Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) is often characterized by the abrupt onset of fever, intense weakness, muscle pain, headache and sore throat. These signs are usually followed by vomiting, diarrhea, rash, impaired kidney and liver function, and in some severe cases, both internal and external bleeding example, oozing from the gums, blood in the stools).
In summary, the signs and symptoms of EVD may include…..
