# ANALYSIS ON SALES OF EGG FROM 2000-2009 USING TIME SERIES (A CASE STUDY OF NICE-FARM OLUANA AREA AKINGBILE MONIYA IBADAN OYO STATE NIGERIA)

0
7

#### ANALYSIS ON SALES OF EGG FROM 2000-2009 USING TIME SERIES (A CASE STUDY OF NICE-FARM OLUANA AREA AKINGBILE MONIYA IBADAN OYO STATE NIGERIA) (STATISTICS PROJECT TOPICS AND MATERIALS)

ABSTRACT

Â Â Â Â Â Â Â This project is written to know the rate in which people are consuming an egg, through scientific approach in detecting fluctuation at Nice-Farm OluanaÂ Â area Moniya Ibadan, Oyo State Nigeria.

In this research work, I have been able to use a secondary data method of collection to analyze dataÂ Â both theoretical and practical.

The statistical tools used to analyze the data collection is Time Series analysis and which i tested for Trend, Seasonal variation, Cyclical variation and Irregular variation. And I used the least square method to analyze and to calculate in order to have to good result.

In conclusion, the result shows that there will be decrease in the egg in nearest future if the birds did not lay egg very well because of the negative signs arrived when calculating for the forecasted years.

CHAPTER ONE

1.0Â Â Â Â Â Â Â INTRODUCTION

1.1Â Â Â Â Â Â Â TIME SERIES:

Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â A time series is a collection of observations of well-defined data items obtained through repeated measurements over time. For example measuring the value of retail sales each month of the year would comprise a time series. This is because sales revenue is well defined, and consistently measured at equally spaced intervals. Data collected irregularly or only once are not time series.

Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â An observed time series can be decomposed into three components. The trend (long term direction). The seasonal (Systematic, Calendar related movements) and the irregular (unsystematic, short term fluctuations).Â

It involves classifying and studying pattern of movement of the variables over regular interval of time.

The role of time series cannot be over emphasized especially for research workers who work on available information i.e data collected over a period of time to forcast or predict of prefigure what is likely to happen in the nearest future.

It helps in understanding past behavior of particular variable, it also helps in planning future occurrence and guide against making a wrong decision mathematically time series can be represented by t he letters Y1Â Y2Â Y3Â â€¦â€¦YnÂ of the variable Y and t1Â t2Â t3â€¦.tnÂ of the variable t.

Y and T is a function which can be symbolically written as Y = P(t).