TIME SERIES ANALYSIS OF SALES OF PETROLEUM PRODUCTS IN NIGERIA (1988-2011)
ABSTRACT
This project is based on time series analysis of yearly sales of petroleum at Balewa fuel station Nigeria limited, Oshogbo, Osun State from 1988-2011. Various trend models of time series analysis were discussed with a view of showing understanding to the appropriate method to be used for forecasts. The time plot of yearly sales of petroleum shows that, there is low sales of petroleum within year 1994 and higher sales of petroleum occur during year 2011. Moreover, evidence from trend analysis shows that the quadratic model trend gives the best model out of all the models considered. This is due to the model which has the least Mean Absolute Deviation. The study adopted quadratic trend model, which was concluded that quadratic model was the best model that best fit the data and was used to forecast yearly sales of petroleum from year 1998 to 2023.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
TITLE PAGE
Title Page i
Certification ii
Dedication iii
Acknowledgement iv
Abstract v
Table of Contents vi-vii
List of Tables ix
List of Figures x
CHAPTER ONE
1.0 Introduction 1
1.1 Discovery of crude oil in Nigeria 1-3
1.2 The performance of oil sector in Nigeria 3- 5
1.3 Role in sales of petroleum product 6
1.4 Aim and Objective 6
1.5 Description of Data 6
Conclusion of chapter 6
CHAPTER TWO: LITERATURE REVIEV
- Introduction 7
2.1 Definition of time series 7
2.1.1 Type of time series 7
2.1.2 Component of time series 8
2.1.3 Time series Trend 8
2.1.4 Objective of time series 9
2.1.5 Importance of time series 9
- Time Plot 9
- Estimation of Trend 9-10
2.3.1 Estimation of Seasonal Variation 10
2.4 Deseasonalisation of Data 11
2.5 Estimation of Cyclical Variation 11
2.5.1 Forecasting Accuracy 11
2.6 Stationary Time Series 12
2.6.1 Strict Stationary 12
2.6.2 Weak Stationary 12
2.6.3 Causes of Stationary 12
- Non Stationary 13
2.8 Test of Stationarity 13
2.8.1 Graphical Analysis 13
2.8.2 Correlogram 14
2.8.3 The unit Root Test 14
2.8.4 Models of Time Series 15
2.8.4 The Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) Test 16
CHAPTER THREE
3.0 Introduction 17
3.1 Time series plot and Component of Time series 17-20
3.2 Forecast 21
CHAPTER FOUR: CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
4.0 Introduction 23
4.1 Summary and Conclusions 23
4.2 Recommendations 23
References 24
Appendix 25
LIST OF TABLES
Table 1: Summary for Trend Analysis 19
Table 2: Forecast Value of Quadratic 21
Table 3: Appendix 25
LIST OF FIGURES
Fig 1: Time series plot of petroleum 17
Fig 2: Linear Trend Analysis 18
Fig 3: Quadratic Trend Analysis 19
Fig 4: Exponential Trend Analysis 20
Fig 5: Forecast plot 22
CHAPTER ONE
INTRODUCTION
1.0 YEARLY SALES OF PETROLEUM
The search of oil in Nigeria started as early as 1937, but the discovery was not until 1956. The sole of petroleum products began in December 1957, managed by a consortium of Royal Dutch Shell and British Petroleum BP Now known as Shell Petroleum Development Company SPDC. G.A, Aga (1993) stated that Nigeria was the second oil producing nation in Africa after Libya and sixth in the world.
In May 1971, the Nigeria National Oil Company was established under the company and Allied matter Act of 1958 as applicable then. NNOC was the government Agency Mandated by law to engage in all phases of oil production and sales, NNOC was later in 1977 amalgamated into a full flex ministry of petroleum to form the Nigeria National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC), which is in partnership with several oil company from different countries operating in Nigeria. Before October 1965, Nigeria Crude Oil was refined overseas and all the processed oil needs were imported. The first refinery plant came into operation in 1965 located at Alesa Eleme near Port-Harcourt. Later Warri and Kaduna Petro-chemical refineries were established in 1978 and 1980 respectively. Similarly, Pipeline and Products Marketing Company Ltd (PPMC) Enugu Depot was commissioned in 25 August 1975 by the then military Governor of the old Anambra State; Colonel D.S. Abubakar. The last was the second refinery in Port-Harcourt. It is however worthy to note that NNPC has several subsidiary company e.g. Pipeline and Product Marketing Company (PPMC).
