SHIPPING TRADE AND ITS IMPACT ON ECONOMIC GROWTH IN NIGERIA; 1976-2015
TABLE OF CONTENT
| Title page | = |
| Certification | = |
| Dedication | = |
| Acknowledgement | |
| Abstract = | = |
Table of content = List of Tables = = List of Figures = =
| = | = | = | = | = | = | = | i |
| = | = | = | = | = | = | = | ii |
| = | = | = | = | = | = | = | iii |
| = | = | = | = | = | = | = | iv |
| = | = | = | = | = | = | = | vii |
| = | = | = | = | = | = | = | viii |
| = | = | = | == | = | = | = | xi |
| == | = | = | = | = | = | = | xii |
| CHAPTER ONE | ||||||||||
| 1.0 | Introduction | = | = | = | = | = | = | == | = | 1 |
| 1.1 | Background = | = | = | = | = | = | = | = | = | 1 |
| 1.2 | Statement of the problems = | = | = | = | = | = | 3 | |||
| 1.3 | Objectives of the study | = | = | = | = | = | = | 4 | ||
| 1.4 | Research Questions = | = | = | = | = | = | = | 5 | ||
| 1.5 | Research Hypotheses | = | = | = | = | = | = | 6 | ||
| 1.6 | Significance of the study | = | = | = | = | = | = | 6 | ||
| 1.7 | Scope of the study | = | = | = | = | = | = | = | 7 | |
| 1.8 | Limitations of the study= | = | = | = | = | = | = | 8 | ||
| CHAPTER TWO LITERATURE REVIEW | ||||||||
| 2.1 | Conceptual framework | = | = | = | = | = | = | 9 |
| 2.2 | Current status and Trends in World Shipping = | = | = | 16 | ||||
| 2.2.1 Overview of the World Shipping Industry = = | = | = | 16 | |||||
| 2.2.2 Trends in ship types and features | = | = | = | = | 23 | |||
| 2.2.3 Trends in shipping Economics | = | = | = | = | = | 25 | ||
| 2.2.4 Overview of shipping markets the current trend = | = | 27 | ||||||
| 7 | ||||||||
| 2.2.6 The Global Evolution of Containerisation = = | = | = | 31 | |||||||
| 2.2.7 | Ownership of Merchant Navy fleet= | = | = | = | = | 38 | ||||
| 2.2.8 | Opportunities for African Maritime countries= | = | = | 42 | ||||||
| 2.2.9 Importance of Maritime Trade in Nigeria’s economy = | 46 | |||||||||
| CHAPTER THREE | ||||||||||
| 3.0 | Research Design and Methodology | = | = | = | = | 51 | ||||
| 3.1 | Definition of Area and population of study | = | = | = | 51 | |||||
| 3.2 | Sources of Data = | = | = | = | = | = | = | = | 51 | |
| 3.3 | Procedure for Date Analysis = | = | = | = | = | = | 51 | |||
| 3.4 | Operational Definition of variables / hypotheses testing | 52 | ||||||||
| 3.4.1 Hypothesis 1 | = | = | = | = | = | = | = | = | 52 | |
| 3.4.2 Hypothesis 2 | = | = | = | = | = | = | = | = | 53 | |
| 3.4.3 Hypothesis 3 | = | = | = | = | = | = | = | = | 54 | |
| 3.5 | Test of significance = = | = | = | = | = | = | = | 55 | ||
| 3.5.1 Test of model significance – ANOVA | = | = | = | = | 55 | |||||
| 3.5.2 Test of Model significance – Coefficient of determination | ||||||||||
| And the F-Test Approach = | = | = | = | = | = | 57 | ||||
| 3.5.3 Test of the significance of the explanatory variables | = | 58 | ||||||||
| 3.6 | Assumptions of the linear regression model | = | = | 59 | ||||||
| CHAPTER FOUR | ||||||||||
| 2.0 | Data presentation, Analysis and interpretation = = | = | 62 | |||||||
| 4.1 | Introduction = | = | = | = | = | = | = | = | = | 62 |
| 4.2 | Data Presentation = | = | = | = | = | = | = | = | 62 | |
| 4.3 | Data Analysis and hypotheses testing = | = | = | = | 65 | |||||
| 4.3.1 Influence of shipment Export Trade on | ||||||||||
| Economic development | = | = | = | = | = | = | 65 | |||
| 4.3.1.1 Test of Model significance – ANOVA method | = | = | 67 | |||||||
| 8 | ||||||||||
| 4.3.1.2 Test of model significance – R2 method = | = | = | 68 | ||||
| 4.3.1.3 Test of the significance of the explanatory variable | = | 69 | |||||
| 4.3.2 The Influence of shipment export trade on Nigeria | |||||||
| External reserve = | = | = | = | = | = | 70 | |
| 4.3.2.1 Test of model significance –ANOVA method = | = | = | 71 | ||||
| 4.3.2.2 | Test of model significance –R2ANOVA method = | = | 71 | ||||
| 4.3.2.3 | Test of the significance of the explanatory variable = | 72 | |||||
- The Influence of shipment Export trade on
| External Debt payment | = | = | = | = | = | = | 73 | |||
| 4.3.3.1 Test of model significance – ANOVA method= | = | = | 74 | |||||||
| 4.3.3.2 | Test of model significance R2= | = | = | = | = | 75 | ||||
| 4.3.3.3 | Test of the significance of the explanation variable = | 75 | ||||||||
| 4.4 | Discussion of Results = | = | = | = | = | = | = | 76 | ||
| 4.4.1 Hypothesis 1 | = | = | = | = | = | = | = | = | 76 | |
| 4.4.2 Hypothesis 2 | = | = | = | = | = | = | = | = | 77 | |
| 4.4.3 Hypothesis 3 | = | = | = | = | = | = | = | = | 78 | |
| CHAPTER FIVE | ||||||||||
| 5.0 | Summary, Conclusion And Recommendations | = | = | 79 | ||||||
| 5.1 | Summary of findings = | = | = | = | = | = | = | 79 | ||
| 5.2 | Conclusion = | = | = | = | = | = | = | = | = | 80 |
| 5.3 | Recommendations = = | = | = | = | = | = | = | 80 | ||
| Bibliography= | = | = | = | = | = | = | = | 82 | ||
| Appendices = | = | = | = | = | = | = | = | = | 86 | |
LIST OF TABLES
- Distribution of the world fleet and DWT capacity of containers by country
| Group – beginning 2007 | 40 |
- Freight costs as percentage of import value
| For various regions of the world | 41 |
| 3.1 Hypothetical ANOVA table | 56 |
- Nigeria’s total ocean shipment export in thousands of tones, gross domestic product,
| external reserve and external debt service | ||
| in millions of naira, 1976-2006 | 63 | |
| 4.2 | Hypothesis 1 result / output | 66 |
| 4.3 | Hypothesis 2 result / output | 70 |
| 4.4 | Hypothesis 3 result / output | 73 |
LIST OF FIGURES
| 2.1 | Composition of the world fleet | 20 |
| 2.2 | Shipping statistical table | 21 |
| 2.3 | Structure of shipping market | 27 |
| 2.4 | World merchandize trade (Exports F.O.B) | 28 |
| 2.5 | The global evolution of containerization | 32 |
| 2.6 | Growth in containerized shipping | 33 |
| 2.7 | Evolution of container vessel size | 35 |
| 2.8 | Distribution of world container traffic by region | 38 |
ABSTRACT
The study investigates the impact of Ocean shipment trade on Nigeria’s economic development, covering the period, 1976-2015. Ocean shipment trade, in thousands of tonnes served as the independent variable in all the three hypotheses defined while, the gross domestic product, Nigerian value of external reserves and external debt payment were employed as the proxies for the level of economic development, respectively for hypotheses I through 3. A simple regression analysis was applied to the time series data. Findings of the study include the fact that a significant and positive relationship exits between ocean shipment export trade and the gross domestic product, external reserve and external debt payment. Also shipment export trade, is a significant contributor to Nigeria’s economic development under each of the dependent variables. On the basis of these findings and conclusions, the study, among other things, recommends that the overall institutional setting in the economy should be improved upon in order to reap in full the benefits of ocean shipment trade in Nigeria. Also, there is need to improve the poor transparency and hence reduce corruption that appears to be endemic in our country, and hence improve the gains from shipment export trade
Keywords:Ocean Shipment Trade, Gross Domestic Product,External Reserve, External Debt Payment, World Shipping Industry, Containerization, African Maritime Countries, National Marine Authority, Area of Cabotage, Shipping Policy.
CHAPTER ONE
INTRODUCTION
1.1 BACKGROUND
Shipping has for a long time been recognized as one of the strong catalysts for socio-economic development. Back in 1776, Adams Smith noted that “A business working in a country town without links to the outside world can never achieve high levels of efficiency because its small market will limit the degree of specialization”. Because shipping is one of the cheapest and efficient modes of transportation over long distances, it has since the ancient times been at the forefront of opening up of the world, and thus a major driver of the process of globalization.
Shipping, especially container shipping, has been both a cause and effect of globalization. Container shipping could lay claim to being the world’s first truly global industry. In fact, container shipping could claim to be the industry which, more than any other, makes it possible for a truly global economy to work. It connects countries, markets, businesses and people, allowing them to buy and sell goods on a scale not previously possible. It is now impossible to imagine world trade, and ultimately our lives as consumers, without container shipping. Shipping has led to a phenomenal growth in world merchandise trade, which has consistently grown faster than output. In 2006, goods loaded at ports worldwide are estimated at 7.42 billion tonnes, up from 5.98 billion tonnes in 2000. The value of total world exports increased from US$6,454 billion in 2002 to US$40,393 billion in 2005, representing an increase of 64 per cent. (See Fig 4).
