THE IMPACT OF THE SLUMP IN OIL PRICE AND PRODUCTION ON RECESSION: ALTERNATIVE OPTIONS FOR THE NIGERIAN ECONOMY
ABSTRACT
This project work investigated the impact of the slump in oil price, production and recession in Nigeria thereby postulating possible alternatives for the Nigerian Economy. The data used for the project were got from National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) bulletin on the amount of income Real Gross Domestic Product (RGDP) in % and Government expenditure on Crude oil export, Non-crude oil export, Oil Price and Crude oil production in million barrels per day. The Ordinary Least Squares Method of estimation was employed to estimate the parameters of the model for the amount of Real Gross Domestic Product (RGDP)-Y in % and Government expenditure on Crude oil export (X1), Non-crude oil export (X2), Oil Price (X3) and Crude oil production (X4) in million barrels per day. The multiple regression model for the data was given
by: Yij
= b0 + b1 X1 + b2 X 2 + b3 X 3 + b4 X 4 + i j . It was finally discovered that the joint
contributions of all the predictors; crude oil export (X1), Non-crude oil export (X2), oil price and crude oil production. The four factors under consideration contribute highly significantly to the real gross domestic product. This is because the P- value is less than 5% and 1% level of significance. Also the model expressed that non-crude oil export and crude oil production gave a meaningful contribution to the real gross domestic product when there was no sense of recession than the crude oil export and oil price. The joint contributions of all the predictors; crude oil export (X1), Non-crude oil export (X2), oil price and crude oil production contribute highly significantly to the real gross domestic product especially in the presence of recession. This is because the P- value is less than 5% and 1% level of significance. It was discovered that the four factors under study contribute to recession in the nation no matter how small.
TABLE OF CONTENTS PAGES
Title page i
Certification page ii
Acknowledgement iv
Table of contents vi
List of tables x
CHAPTER ONE
- Background of the Study 1
- Concept Clarification 9
CHAPTER TWO
LITERATURE REVIEW AND THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK
- Literature Review 11
- Nigeria‘s Economy and Oil the Sector 15
- The impact of the Oil Sector on the Nigerian Economy 21
- Historical Perspective of Economic Recession 32
2.5. Causes of Economic Recession 36
CHAPTER THREE METHODOLOGY
- Introduction 56
- Description of Specified Model 56
- Research Questions 58
- Research Hypothesis 58
- Study Population and Sample 58
- Source of Data Collection 59
- Full Description of the Data Source 59
- Method of Data Analysis 61
- Expected Result 61
References 63
CHAPTER FOUR
RESULT AND INTERPRETATION
- Introduction 64
- Presentation of Result and Discussion 64
- Comparing Estimates Before Recession with Those Inclusive of Recession Year 67
- Hypotheses Testing 68
CHAPTER FIVE
SUMMARY, CONCLUSION AND RECCOMENDATIONS
- Summary, Conclusion and Recommendation 69
- Summary 69
- Conclusion 70
- Recommendations 71
Bibliography 74
Appendix 77
THE IMPACT OF THE SLUMP IN OIL PRICE AND PRODUCTION ON RECESSION: ALTERNATIVE OPTIONS FOR THE NIGERIAN ECONOMY