TIME SERIES ANALYSIS ON MARRIAGE REGISTRATION IN ILORIN, KWARA STATE (2000-2011) (A CASE STUDY OF MARRIAGE, REGISTRY OF SOCIAL WELFARE, ILORIN)

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ABSTRACT

The study examined time series analysis on marriage registration in Ilorin, Kwara State between (2000 – 2011). The data used was collected from marriage registry, ministry of social welfare, Ilorin, Kwara State. Moving average, simple linear regression was used for the analysis. The result on trend value clearly show that, there is a steady decrease in the number of marriage from second half of the year 2002 up to January 2003, and from there, there was a shape increase in the number of marriage. Also trend of marriage contains seasonal variation, which have been smoothing by moving average method. Thus, the trend value appears to follow almost identical patterns during the corresponding month of the successive years. This indicated that Christmas and New Year festivals have influence on marriage as it can be seen on the trend values.

CHAPTER ONE

1.0    INTRODUCTION

Marriage  according  to  Collins dictionary simply defines marriage as “ The  state or relationship of  being husband and wife or a contact made by man and woman to live as husband and wife “ The Christian understanding of marriage goes deeper than the definition given above it look at marriage as a convenient. The matrimonial covenant by which a man and a woman establish between themselves.

While marriage in islamic perspective is viewed as the method chosen Allah for protection, multiplicity and continuity of life after each of the spouse have been adequately prepared by Allah in discharging positively the marital responsibilities. Also according to legal perspective, marriage is universally accepted to be a union of man and woman, that is, union of persons of opposite sex.

Marriage is founded on an and governed by the social and religions norms of the society. The history of marriage can be traced back to the documents of second vacation council (Gaudiumet Spes) on the subject of holiness of marriage and the family that states that “the intimate partnership of life and the love which constitute the marriage state has been establish by the creator and endowed by him with its own laws, it is rooted in a contract of the partner”.

Marriage can be defined psychologically as a contract enter into by two adults of opposite sex to live together has husband and wife until death do them apart.

In other words, marriage could be defined as marital union between a man and a woman.

  1. TYPES OF MARRIAGE

There are three major types of marriages namely,

  1. CHRISTIAN MARRIAGE: Is a marriage conducted by an ordained person (priest, Reverend, Pastor etc) couples getting married under Christianity have agreed to live by the doctrine of the holy bible. In Christian marriage polygamy is allowed, but the number of wife they can married is stipulated. This can be traced in the old testament which states that “the polygamy of Patriarchs and kings is not yet explicitly rejected”.
  2. ISLAMIC MARRIAGE: Are performed according to the laws of islam. It can be carried out by an alpha, imam or muslim scholar in a mosque or in a private home. Therefore, Muhammad (S.A.W) came while the practice of polygamy was coming and deeply rooted in the social life. The Quran did not ignore the practice or discard its, nor its let it continued unchecked or unrestricted. The benevolent intervention of the Quran permits a maximum of four wives in which equality among the wives in the treatment, provisions and kindness must be fulfilled.
  3. CUSTOMARY OR TRADITIONAL MARRIAGE: This was method of marriage used before of arrival of the colonial master and the foreigners that brought Christianity, Islam and other religions. The traditional or customary obligation required in the olden days kola nut, yam tubers, honey, sugar cane, cloths and various other things which might include physical cash to be taking to the family of bride (wife).

It is after the traditional ceremony that other ceremonies follow which might include going to marriage registry announce their intention to get married legally. In customary marriage one man can marry many wives and the actual number is not stated in any text. But in the olden days, our forefathers who were mostly farmers married many wives and have many children to assist them in their farming activities.

LEGAL MARRIAGE: Legal marriage is the marriage that is carried out accordance with the provision of the laws that applies to marriage in Nigeria which is called the married act. One wife is permitted in legal marriage. This can be find in section 370 of the criminal code which reads. “any person who, having a husband or wife living marries in any case in which such marriage is avoid by reason of it taking place during the life such husband or wife is guilty of a felony, and liable to imprisonment for seven years”.

Therefore, this study is interested in the legal marriage due to the fact that the available data in the registry is base on legal marriage.

TIME SERIES ANALYSIS ON MARRIAGE REGISTRATION IN ILORIN, KWARA STATE (2000-2011) (A CASE STUDY OF MARRIAGE, REGISTRY OF SOCIAL WELFARE, ILORIN)