WIND SPEED FORECASTING IN THE PRESENCE OF SOME METEOROLOGICAL VARIABLES USING VECTOR AUTOREGRESSIVE AND MULTINOMIAL LOGISTIC REGRESSION MODEL
CHAPTER ONE
INTRODUCTION
1.1 Background to the Study
With the advent of science and technology, the demand for electrical energy becomes inevitable. Nigeria is a country endowed with abundant energy resources like coal, solar, water (Dam), wind and so on which can be used as a form of electricity generation. Despite the abundance of these energy resources, there is inconsistent supply of electricity, which may be due to underutilization of the potentials.
Wind energy is the fastest growing renewable source of energy. With respect to this, the need for wind speed modelling and forecasting becomes paramount. Energy generation by wind is of great advantage because wind turbines do not produce any form of pollution when sited strategically. Moreover, it blends with the natural landscape. The utilization of wind energy will ensure the growth of socio-economic development and improvement in the quality of life of the citizens. The demand for more sustainable energy sources are on the increase in order to address the growing needs of humans. It is also in line with taking care of the environment and the minimal use of natural resources, which means there is an urgent need for developing renewable energy.
Wind energy is now becoming the current trend in renewable energy as it addresses rising energy demand while being nature friendly at the same time. In the long run, electricity generated from the wind turbines cost less than the conventional power plants since it does not consume fossil fuel. Researches on the potentials of wind energy in some major cities in Nigeria show high wind speed in Lagos, Maiduguri, Enugu, Jos, Kano, Funtua and Sokoto (Idris et al., 2012).
The gathering of wind data is important for the wind farm beginning from its feasibility to its actual operation. Prior to the construction of a wind farm, at least one year of meteorological study is necessary and a detailed verification of the specific on-site wind conditions are necessary. Meteorological values, more specifically wind speed and wind direction are necessary for the calculation of the wind farm’s yearly electrical generation profile. The harnessing of Kinetic energy through the wind has been used for centuries, be it in form of powering sail boats, wind mills, or furnaces (Aliyu and Mohammed 2014). But, it was not until 1979 that the modern wind power industry began in earnest with the production of wind turbines. The use of wind energy as a form of renewable energy gained momentum in the 80s and 90s and there are now thousands of wind turbines operating all over the world (Minh et al., 2011). The modern and most commonly used wind turbine has a horizontal axis with two or more aerodynamic blades mounted on the shaft. These blades can travel at over several times the wind speed, generating electricity which is captured by a medium voltage power collection system and fed through the power transmission network (Garba and Al-Amin, 2014).
DOWNLOAD COMPLETE PROJECT MATERIALS
WIND SPEED FORECASTING IN THE PRESENCE OF SOME METEOROLOGICAL VARIABLES USING VECTOR AUTOREGRESSIVE AND MULTINOMIAL LOGISTIC REGRESSION MODEL
