Abstract:
The role of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in shaping Nigeria’s and Africa’s seasonal weather patterns has sparked considerable debate regarding its extent of influence. The impact of ENSO magnitudes does not consistently align with directional outcomes, underscoring the need to explore potential connections with the phases of the Indian Ocean Dipole Mode Index (IODMI) across the equatorial Indian Ocean. This study aims to address the existing knowledge gaps concerning the overarching controls on the Nigerian Monsoon Seasonal Rainfall (NMSR) pattern by investigating teleconnections with IODMI.
Daily rainfall data sourced from the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet) and Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) data from the Indian and Pacific Oceans, obtained from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) website, were analyzed for the period spanning 1983 to 2015. The analysis employed the Pearson correlation coefficient method to examine spatial and temporal relationships between IODMI/NMSR and ENSO/NMSR. Additionally, the significance of correlation outcomes was evaluated using two approaches: the Critical r value and p-value.
Results indicate a noteworthy correlation, with an alpha value of 0.1, between IODMI and NMSR at selected stations. These correlations exhibit varying tendencies, either augmenting rainfall during certain periods or diminishing it during others. However, a comparative assessment of the influence of IODMI and ENSO indices negates their individual effects on NMSR. Instead, NMSR seems reliant on the strength of correlation between these indices, both showcasing a decreasing spatial pattern from north to south.
In conclusion, this study establishes a teleconnection between NMSR and IODMI across the examined stations. Consequently, integrating IODMI into climate prediction models for monsoon rainfall over Nigeria holds the potential to enhance the resilience of various sectors, particularly agriculture, thereby contributing to more robust economic planning.
INVESTIGATING THE POSSIBLE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE INDIAN OCEAN DIPOLE (IOD) AND RAINFALL PATTERNS IN NIGERIA, GET MORE, ACTUARIAL SCIENCE PROJECT TOPICS AND MATERIALS
